Vítej, Host. Prosím přihlaš se nebo se zaregistruj.
Nedostal jsi svůj aktivační email?
17.11.2019, 15:52:48

Přihlaš se uživatelským jménem, heslem a délkou sezení
Vyhledávání:     Pokročilé vyhledávání
Tak si nás našli spameři, registrace vyžaduje potvrzení, a jestli to je nezastaví, tak to budu zase schvalovat, ach jo.

5936 příspěvků v 155 témat od 123 uživatelů
Nejnovější uživatel: kolo1
* Domů Nápověda Přihlásit Registrovat
+  Honor Harringtonová
|-+  O Honor Harrington
| |-+  Diskuse o Honorverse
| | |-+  Vyvoj po At all cost - ze starého fora
« předchozí další »
Stran: 1 [2] Tisk
Autor Téma: Vyvoj po At all cost - ze starého fora  (Přečteno 17436 krát)
Tozeer
Newbie
*
Příspěvků: 21


Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #15 kdy: 15.07.2007, 18:03:35 »

Dalin: dik, souhlasim s deVegou: Ses dobrej... A tez se tesim, az to vyjde Mrknutí
Zaznamenáno
Dalin
Full Member
***
Příspěvků: 209


Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #16 kdy: 28.07.2007, 14:04:42 »

S tím systémem Apollo by myslím mohla Mantichora zvítězit relativně rychle i když má nedostatek lodí. Dovedu si představit relativně jednnduchý scénář útoku na opevněnou soustavu typu Haven. Torpédoborce oskenují ghost riderem soustavu a získají představu o stacionárních cílech typu pevnosti, minová pole a gondolová pole, loděnice a průmysl. Potom by relativně daleko o cílů a obrany skočily do soustavy minonosky, vysypaly gondoly a poslaly střely po balistice na cíl a zmizely by do hyper. No a nakonec, než by střely doletěly do útočné fáze, tak by skočily do soustavy SD vybavené Keyhole II a převzaly řízení střel v útočné fázi. Tohle kdyby zopakovali 2-3x, tak by Haven musel hodit ručník do ringu. Jediným limitujícím faktorem této taktiky by byl efektivní dosah gravitačních pulzů, ten by ale měl být dostatečný. 2 eskadry SD by snadno mohly řídit salvu 15000 a více střel a pokud by postavili obdobu havenského moriartyho, tak by jich nemuselo být ani tolik. Havenu by lodě byly na nic, protože než by zareagovali a doletěli hyperem k mantichořanům, tak by bylo po akci.
Zaznamenáno
Muphrid
Hero Member
*****
Příspěvků: 949



Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #17 kdy: 15.02.2008, 14:03:25 »

Konečně jsem to dočetl a vidím to asi takhle:

1. možná dojde ještě k několika menším šarvátkám mezi SKM a RH, ale ty už budou jen minoritní. Těžká technologická převaha SKM (hlavně Mistletoe a Apollo) jsou pro ně za současné situace trumfem a RH těžko přijde v krátké době (řekněme půl roku) s nějakým protitahem, jenže to už bude mít SKM dostatek nových SD(P) schopných nést Keyhole II.

2. Z databází SD(P) zajatých při BoM a výslechů zajatých důstojníků se podaří vydestilovat polohu Bolthole a SKM to využije buď k její likvidaci nebo k ultimátu.

3. Mezitím se Cachat a Usher vrátí z Mesy s důkazy podporujícími teorii intervence třetího subjektu (Mesy) v předchozích konfliktech a dost možná to přiměje Elizabetu k mírovým jednáním (případně podpořeným zmíněným ultimátem).

4. Odhalení Mesy by mohlo nějakým způsobem přispět k rozpadu SL a tady bych viděl možnost vzniku nové války... Otázkou by bylo kdo by válčil s kým. Neznámou jsou tady faktory jako Talbot, Slezsko, frakce u Andermanů, samotný rozsah vlivu Mesy, jaké části zůstanou po rozpadu SL kompaktní (před rozpadem nejspíš musí vypuknout občanská válka) atd. Je toho hodně...

5. Je jasné, že Mantichora by se v současné době po několik dalších let nemohla žádného velkého konfliktu zúčastnit, už jen kvůli počtu lodí zbylých po BoM. Např.: co udělají se zajatými SD(P)? Těžko je refitnou na Keyhole II-kompatibilní, takže co s nimi? Že by udělali něco jako Cayleb v OAR, kdy zajaté loďstvo vrátil jednomu z nepřátel jako akt podpory míru a společných vztahů?
« Poslední změna: 15.02.2008, 14:08:25 od Muphrid » Zaznamenáno

Warning: Don't stare into laser with remaining eye!
Johnak
Global Moderator
Full Member
*****
Příspěvků: 217



Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #18 kdy: 18.02.2008, 22:39:10 »

Ja myslim, ze casem nepochybne dojde k tomu, ze SKM a Haven pochopi, ze za nitky taha Mesa a pujdou po ni. Myslim, ze Mesa se bude branit pomoci nejakych lidi od pohranicniho lodstva. Myslim, ze celej Svaz se do toho nenecha zatahnout.

O patrani Cachata a Antona myslim bude pojednavat druha CoW kniha. Zajimalo by me, o cem bude novej Saganami. Ktera postavy se vrati a ktere ne? Myslim, ze Terechov by mohl prevzit Nike, kdyz byl ted Oversteegen povysen na kontradmirala. A Helen a Abigail by tam mohly byt taky. Ale zase aby se z toho nestal Star Trek, kde je porad stejna posadka.
Zaznamenáno
Muphrid
Hero Member
*****
Příspěvků: 949



Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #19 kdy: 19.02.2008, 13:32:11 »

Ja myslim, ze casem nepochybne dojde k tomu, ze SKM a Haven pochopi, ze za nitky taha Mesa a pujdou po ni. Myslim, ze Mesa se bude branit pomoci nejakych lidi od pohranicniho lodstva. Myslim, ze celej Svaz se do toho nenecha zatahnout.
Jo, tak nějak bych to viděl taky. A určitě nepůjdou proti Svazu jako celku - to by prostě nešlo logistcky zvládnout. Proto jsem říkal, že se nejdřív bude muset Svar rozpadnout na menší části...

O patrani Cachata a Antona myslim bude pojednavat druha CoW kniha. Zajimalo by me, o cem bude novej Saganami. Ktera postavy se vrati a ktere ne? Myslim, ze Terechov by mohl prevzit Nike, kdyz byl ted Oversteegen povysen na kontradmirala. A Helen a Abigail by tam mohly byt taky. Ale zase aby se z toho nestal Star Trek, kde je porad stejna posadka.
Ano, CoS2 by mohla být přesně o tomhle. Je v tom určitě potenciál na rozvedení do rozsáhlého příběhu. Nicméně si myslím, že to nebude s Terekhovem (aspoň ne přímo) - SKM přišla v BoM o spoustu důležitých osobností, které se musejí někým zaplácnout, tzn. Weber musí přijít s osobnostmi novými + povýšit hodně starých.
Zaznamenáno

Warning: Don't stare into laser with remaining eye!
Johnak
Global Moderator
Full Member
*****
Příspěvků: 217



Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #20 kdy: 19.02.2008, 14:42:27 »

Uvidime, jak to s tim Terechovem bude. Zase je to hodne dulezite postava, aby ji Weber degradoval pouze na par steku v dalsi knize.
Jinak, doufam, ze se v nejake dalsi knize objevi Sarnow a bude tam mit nejakou vetsi ulohu. V SoS je zminka o tom, ze dohlizi na Anexi slezka, ale rekl bych, ze po ztratach u Mantichory, ho budou potrebovat nekdy bliz k centru deni. Jen doufam, ze jeho zapojeni do pribehu neskonci stejne jako zapojeni d'Orvilla a Kuzakove v posledni knize. Smích
Zaznamenáno
Muphrid
Hero Member
*****
Příspěvků: 949



Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #21 kdy: 20.02.2008, 09:02:48 »

Uvidime, jak to s tim Terechovem bude. Zase je to hodne dulezite postava, aby ji Weber degradoval pouze na par steku v dalsi knize.
To byl Oversteegen taky Mrknutí.

Jinak, doufam, ze se v nejake dalsi knize objevi Sarnow a bude tam mit nejakou vetsi ulohu. V SoS je zminka o tom, ze dohlizi na Anexi slezka, ale rekl bych, ze po ztratach u Mantichory, ho budou potrebovat nekdy bliz k centru deni. Jen doufam, ze jeho zapojeni do pribehu neskonci stejne jako zapojeni d'Orvilla a Kuzakove v posledni knize. Smích
Jo, Sarnowa by tam mohl protěžit trošku víc. A myslím si, že SoS2 by mohlo být situované právě do Slezska...
No a kdyby měl i on skončit jako Kuzaková nebo d'Orvill, tak potom už by si asi Mantichora musela vlajkové důstojníky půjčovat od Havenu Smích Smích.
Zaznamenáno

Warning: Don't stare into laser with remaining eye!
Johnak
Global Moderator
Full Member
*****
Příspěvků: 217



Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #22 kdy: 20.02.2008, 17:53:47 »

Jo, taky me napadlo, ze by SoS2 mohlo byt situovano do Slezka, ale prijde na to, jestli to Weber chce soustredit na urcite postavy (Helen, Terechov) nebo na urcitou oblast (Talbott) popr. na oboji. Spis bych rekl, ze to prvni. Uvidime.

Nedostatku admiralu se nebojim. Ale je dobre ze to trochu proridlo. V HH maji lidi prumernou delku zivota 200-300 let a prumerny vek, kdy se nekdo stane admiralem je kolem tech sedesati. To znamena, ze casem by se jim zacali admiralove hromadit. :-D (samozrejme, ze ne kazdy dustojnik se stane admiralem, ale... v HH to tak obcas neprijde. :-) )
Zaznamenáno
Dalin
Full Member
***
Příspěvků: 209


Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #23 kdy: 20.02.2008, 18:33:26 »

Já myslím, že obě boční serie budou připravovat děj na přímou konfontaci s Mesou a jejími podřízenými státy a uřády Solárnáho Svazu.
Pokračování CoS bude asi o pokusu znovu Mesy znovu získat Torch. Nedokážu typovat kde bude pokračování SoS, ale řekl bych, že Slezsko je trošku z ruky a pro Mesu bylo sice užitečným, ale ne zrovna významným polem působení.
Zaznamenáno
Muphrid
Hero Member
*****
Příspěvků: 949



Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #24 kdy: 20.02.2008, 23:15:51 »

Jo, taky me napadlo, ze by SoS2 mohlo byt situovano do Slezka, ale prijde na to, jestli to Weber chce soustredit na urcite postavy (Helen, Terechov) nebo na urcitou oblast (Talbott) popr. na oboji. Spis bych rekl, ze to prvni. Uvidime.
Těžko říct. Nicméně na další příběhy s těmito postavami jsem opravdu zvědavý Mrknutí. Jak píšeš - uvidíme (+ příspěvek níže).

Nedostatku admiralu se nebojim. Ale je dobre ze to trochu proridlo. V HH maji lidi prumernou delku zivota 200-300 let a prumerny vek, kdy se nekdo stane admiralem je kolem tech sedesati. To znamena, ze casem by se jim zacali admiralove hromadit. :-D (samozrejme, ze ne kazdy dustojnik se stane admiralem, ale... v HH to tak obcas neprijde. :-) )
Rozhodně ano, nicméně vzhledem k rozsahu destrukce Mantichorských flotil během BoM podle mě zmizelo ze scény tolik vlajkových důstojníků, včetně jejich potenciálních nástupců, že bude Mantichoře trvat několik let, než se z toho alespoň trošku otřepou... Ledaže by "domů" stáhli velitele z Alizonu, Zanzibaru a dalších, teď už "podružných" oblastí, a nahradili je narychlo povýšenými nováčky. Tak mě napadá, že by to možná ani nevadilo... Tyhle oblasti teď stejně asi nebudou moc protěžované Úsměv.


Já myslím, že obě boční serie budou připravovat děj na přímou konfontaci s Mesou a jejími podřízenými státy a uřády Solárnáho Svazu.
Pokračování CoS bude asi o pokusu znovu Mesy znovu získat Torch.
Jo, řekl bych, že děj CoS2 je skoro jistý. A těším se na to jako malý kluk Škleb.

Nedokážu typovat kde bude pokračování SoS, ale řekl bych, že Slezsko je trošku z ruky a pro Mesu bylo sice užitečným, ale ne zrovna významným polem působení.
Toť otázka. Zatím se nikde nepsalo o rozsahu trhu Mesanů, nicméně přinejmenším jako pašerácká trasa je Slezsko významné docela dost. Přes něj rozhodně vedou i cesty do některých částí Solárního svazu, takže bych Slezsko jako další cíl děje SoS2 nezavrhoval...
« Poslední změna: 20.02.2008, 23:19:25 od Muphrid » Zaznamenáno

Warning: Don't stare into laser with remaining eye!
Muphrid
Hero Member
*****
Příspěvků: 949



Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #25 kdy: 01.07.2008, 13:48:19 »

Takže tu máme další info k tomuto tématu a to přímo od Davida Webera - formou odpovědí na nejčastěji kladené dotazy:

Citace
Subject: An authorial comment on "fighting the massive waves of the SLN"
Group: Honorverse
Author: davidweber
Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2008 04:44:16 GMT
Local: Mon, 23 Jun 2008 00:44:16 -0400

There seems to be some fairly heated speculation going on where the topic of a potential war between the Solarian League and the Star Empire of Manticore is concerned. I think I've already addressed most of the points that are being raised, in one post or another, and I assure you that how they work out in the history of the Honorverse will be touched upon, one way or another, in the books. For right this moment, however, let me engage in a small recap designed to pour at least some oil upon some troubled waters.

It seems to me that the dispute centers primarily around the following questions:

(1) Who declares war on who?

(2) Will the war result from the arrogant overreach of Frontier Fleet?

(3) If the war results from the arrogance of Frontier Fleet/Frontier Security, will the rest of the League be prepared to go to war in support? And, if the war results from that cause, what sort of sacrifices will the rest of the League be willing to make if/after Frontier Fleet is reduced to wreckage for minimal Manticoran losses?

(4) Once war is declared, how effective -- or, rather, how much more effective -- will Manticoran ships-of-the-wall prove to be in comparison to Solarian units?

(5) If war breaks out, will Manticore pursue a basically defensive strategy or a strategy of all-out offensive action?

(6) Assuming that Manticore pursues an all-out offensive strategy resulting in the near-total destruction of Battle Fleet and the destruction of all known military shipbuilding centers, can Manticore indefinitely prevent the Solarian League from rearming?

(7) In the event of a war between the Star Empire of Manticore and the Solarian League, what happens to the Manticoran carrying trade and the wealth generated by its wormhole junction?

(Valím oči! Super! What happens if a revanchist Solarian League or Solarian League successor state decides to go after Manticore after achieving technological and numerical parity or superiority?

(9) How much does the ONI know about the Solarian League's real capabilities?

I don't know that these questions are all in the order that you guys would place them, but I needed to organize them somehow if I was going to comment on them. Now, please bear in mind that nothing I am about to tell you should be taken as indicating that relations between the Solarian League and the Star Empire of Manticore are going to proceed in a particular fashion in the books. I'm commenting only on the situation as it exists (and as it is perceived by the participants) and what I view as the difficulties and possibilities under most of these cases.

 

(1) Who declares war on who?

This is one of those "I could tell you the answer, but then I'd have to kill you" questions. I think, however, you can take it as a given that the Star Empire definitely doesn't want to declare war on the Solarian League, and that the Solarian League would find it extraordinarily difficult to legally declare war on anyone.

 

(2) Will the war result from the arrogant overreach of Frontier Fleet?

I saw the question phrased in one of the posts in terms of Frontier Fleet's arrogance and ambition, which is the reason I phrased my statement of the question this way, because Frontier Fleet's arrogance and overreach really have very little to do with what's going on. Frontier Security's arrogance and overreach, on the other hand, have quite a bit to do with what's going on. It's important to understand that Frontier Fleet and the Office of Frontier Security are two totally different entities. One -- Frontier Fleet -- is part of the Solarian League Navy and reports to the Minister of War. The other entity -- the Office of Frontier Security -- reports directly to the Solarian Foreign Ministry and is a civilian bureaucratic institution. Certain Frontier Security personnel, like sector governors, may have been formally vested with command of Frontier Fleet detachments operating in their own areas of responsibility, but otherwise Frontier Security and Frontier Fleet are not in the same chain of command, and -- by and large -- Frontier Fleet doesn't especially like Frontier Security. Reflect upon the relationship between the regular naval personnel (from Frontier Fleet) and Frontier Security in general revealed in Crown of Slaves.

 

(3) If the war results from the arrogance of Frontier Fleet/Frontier Security, will the rest of the League be prepared to go to war in support? And, if the war results from that cause, what sort of sacrifices will the rest of the League be willing to make if/after Frontier Fleet is reduced to wreckage for minimal Manticoran losses?

This is a very difficult call, and the situation could go in several different directions. If Frontier Fleet is handed a salutary drubbing and sent home again by the Manties, but without wholesale slaughter of Frontier Fleet's units, then the most likely probability is that the central League bureaucracy will grit its teeth, declare "no harm, no foul," severely (and very publicly) discipline the Frontier Security putzes who let this whole situation get so far out of hand, and work for some sort of negotiated end of hostilities and settlement with the Star Empire. Another possibility would be for the bureaucrats to ask for a formal declaration of war in the belief that Battle Fleet would be more successful, although they probably wouldn't even come close to getting the declaration they wanted. Yet another possibility would be for the League, and for the Navy in particular, to take the position that the Solarian League isn't going to war against the Star Empire of Manticore, at all. At worst, this is a police action, and it constitutes purely local acts of self-defense, for which no formal declaration of war is necessary. And, of course, after several months of this and continuing military operations, it would become extraordinarily difficult for any sort of negotiated settlement to emerge from the chaos. Yet another possibility would be for the League bureaucrats (assuming that they recognize the qualitative Manticoran edge in hardware) to offer to negotiate and then to spin things out across the negotiating table as long as possible while the SLN worked frantically to acquire matching or at least semi-equivalent technology of its own. I imagine that by now you can see what I meant when I said this could possibly go off in any one (or combination) of several directions.

Now, assuming that hostilities do break out and (especially) that they spread beyond the original area of confrontation, the League's bureaucracy is going to become increasingly committed to defeating Manticore as severely as possible in order to establish that just because you have a few shiny new technological toys, you shouldn't go around picking on the League, anyway. If the bureaucrats make a concerted effort to pursue a military response (as they see it) to "Manticoran aggression," they could create a situation in which momentum, anger, fear, and already-spilled blood would make it extraordinarily difficult for the League as a whole to pull back. None of which means that the portions of the League well separated from the zone of conflict by a comfortable pad of light-years would feel particularly happy about continuing the war and quite possibly drawing devastation down upon their own heads. By the same token, however, those more distant portions of the League may well remain much more poorly informed about what is actually going on and thus feel even more belligerent (and less worried about the war's final outcome) than the folks closer to the point of combat do.

If the Solarian League, as presently constituted, commits wholeheartedly to fighting Manticore because of "what the Star Empire did to our Frontier Fleet," for example, and if it holds together in the process, then the potential for the League to be willing to sustain very heavy losses and continue to prosecute the war becomes much higher. Once things like the concept of "national honor" get involved, and once somebody begins thumping on a lectern and shouting about how the "fundamental unity of the human race, which has protected us all from the evils of general warfare literally for centuries" is under assault, and how the loss of that fundamental unity will "inevitably lead to an unending procession of war after war between the League's successors," it's entirely possible that the League could find war with Manticore actually pulling it together into an effective interstellar government for the first time since its creation. And if that happens, then the League would be prepared to sustain very heavy absolute losses to continue the war until it attained victory.

I'm really not trying to be deliberately misleading here. I'm simply saying that there are way too many variables to be any more specific, and, quite frankly, within the constraints of where I've decided to take the storyline, I usually don't try to pick and choose which variables are going to come into play. The events as they unfold in the various societies and star nations wind up telling me that as I go along.

 

(4) Once war is declared, how effective -- or, rather, how much more effective -- will Manticoran ships-of-the-wall prove to be in comparison to Solarian units?

Well, I think that most of you should be able to begin making a fairly reasonable estimate of the answer to this question in your own minds, based on what you've already seen. I'm not going to go into additional detail at this time about this point, for several reasons. One is that I don't intend to give away now what may turn out to be surprises in the books later. Another is that there's still room for at least some qualitative shifts in the SLN's capabilities as I work on the next few books. And yet another is that as I get into the storyline and the ships start coming into play, there's a certain synergy that kicks in. I genuinely don't know in full detail ahead of time exactly how various navies are going to stack up against one another. I don't try to set things up that way. Instead, I decide what capabilities I'm going to give to the two sides, then sit back to see how those capabilities work out in play. That being the case, I'm really not prepared to give any definitive answers at this early stage in the process.

 

(5) If war breaks out, will Manticore pursue a basically defensive strategy or a strategy of all-out offensive action?

Sort of by definition, any Manticoran strategic stance is going to be "defensive" in the sense that Manticore doesn't want to go to war with the Solarian League at all. Manticore has absolutely no interest in conquering or attempting to rule something the size of the Solarian League, and the Star Empire would vastly prefer to avoid any hostilities with the largest customer for its services.

I realize that that wasn't actually what the question was getting at, but I think it goes to the heart of how Manticore is likely to answer that question. Of course, the way Manticore answers it will also depend on how Manticore perceives the relative combat capabilities of the two sides, as well.

First of all, Manticore is going to approach the possibility of war with the Solarian League with two overriding thoughts in mind. Well, possibly three, since the first of the two I had in mind split a little bit into separate considerations.

The first Manticoran consideration is going to be the need to avoid any possible confrontations with the Solarian League precisely because the last thing Manticore wants is a war against the League. Please note, however, that the real operative word of the above sentence is "possible." That is, Queen Elizabeth would probably phrase her orders as "Admiral, avoid any possible confrontation with the Solarian League, but remember your overriding responsibility to safeguard the lives and property of Manticoran citizens. If it is impossible to avoid a confrontation in the course of meeting that responsibility, then I expect you to confront the Sollies rather than backing down." So, while Manticore is eager to avoid a war with the Solarian League, it isn't sufficiently desperate to avoid that war to compromise its national sovereignty. That's the second point which splits off from the first one. Or, perhaps, completes the first one.

The second major point, however, is that Manticore is well aware of the fact that the Solarian League has traditionally been essentially a powerless giant where its foreign policy is concerned. (This, frankly, is one reason why Queen Elizabeth is so willing to court a " confrontation" with the League rather than compromise Manticoran sovereignty. Mind you, she'd do it anyway, but the extreme handicaps the League faces when it comes to crafting any sort of coherent foreign policy is definitely a part of her thinking, as well.) The fact that any full member of the League has the constitutional power to veto a declaration of war is a part of Elizabeth's individual and the Star Empire as a whole's calculus where the League is concerned (and those of you who have been thinking that the Beowulf connection is a part of that might just have a point. Tum-Te-Tum-Te-Tum.). It's extreme unlikely that the League would ever get around to formally declaring war on the Star Empire of Manticore. It is far more likely that any "war" with the Star Empire would be prosecuted on a sort of ad hoc basis. As an "undeclared war" or a "police action" -- quite possibly a technically illegal police action, fought by the various bureaucracies without any authorization from the elected government at all. This sort of bureaucratic overreach has occurred before in the history of the League, and, in fact, with increasing frequency over the last century or two.

An "undeclared war" with the League could, in many respects, be the worst possible scenario for the Star Kingdom. If the League formally declares war, then the Star Kingdom would be freed to act as a belligerent against another belligerent, which would include attacks on Battle Fleet formations that were still in mothballs, raids on planetary and orbital infrastructures far from the original area of confrontation, commerce raiding against the Solarian League's merchant marine, etc. But if there is no legal declaration of war, and if Manticore proceeds as if there had been one, then the possibility that something like a full-scale declaration will come into existence is far more likely. In addition, if Manticore starts raiding targets far behind the front, light-centuries away from Manticoran territory, in the absence of any declaration of war by the League upon the Star Empire, it will become far easier for the Star Empire's opponents to "spin" Solarian public opinion into viewing the Star Empire as the aggressor. In fact, Manticoran strategic offensives against the sources of the League's military muscle could be portrayed as a deliberate escalation of what had been only "an incident" up to that time. They could also be used to convince the core worlds of the Old League that they and their citizens were actively at risk, and that the Star Empire had become an "overreacting interstellar mad dog" which needed to be put down. What this means is that the all-out offensive stance against the League which some people are recommending holds the potential to turn what might be a smaller scale, RMN-versus-Frontier Fleet confrontation into the sort of all out war Manticore badly wants to avoid.

By the same token, it is going to be quite obvious to the Star Empire' strategists, especially once they have an opportunity to fully evaluate the qualitative differences between the two sides on the basis of actual combat reports, that Manticore currently holds a quite probably decisive edge in war fighting capability and that to stand upon the defensive for any period of time will give the Solarian League the opportunity to recognize its own areas of inferiority and start rectifying them. A Frontier Fleet which the RMN can dominate, hold in check, or even destroy because of Manticore's technical advantages would become far more threatening once those technical advantages begin disappearing, so even a so called "limited war" or "police action" could very well, in the fullness of time, produce fatal consequences for the Star Empire if it goes up against the Solarian League.

There are, of course, still other considerations. For example, a "limited war" which stretched out over a period of, say, 15 years, might well give the Star Empire time to significantly build up the industrial capacity of the Talbott Quadrant and the new territories in Silesia. It could also give the Star Empire time to settle its differences with the Republic of Haven, or even possibly draw the Republic into a mutual defensive alliance against the possibility of Frontier Security moving into the Haven Sector. And, there's always the question of what happens to Manticore's carrying trade and the wormhole junctions. If Manticore is involved in any "police action" against the Office of Frontier Security and Frontier Fleet in a single sector of the Verge, then it is highly probable that the rest of the League (or, at least, a majority of it) would remain open to Manticoran commerce, and the fact that Solarian cargoes were being carried in Manticoran hulls would probably tend to mitigate against a concerted policy of commerce raiding directed against Manticoran merchant shipping.

All of these factors (and probably a bunch more I haven't even touched on) have to be considered by the Manticoran policymakers, both civilian and military. As I hope you can see, the fact that they do means that the arguments in favor of a defensive or an offensive strategy are not quite so clearcut as many of their proponents appear to think they are. And they are also the reason that even if I wanted to (which I don't, frankly) I really couldn't give you a definitive answer at this time on what sort of strategy Manticore will/might pursue in the event of a war with the Solarian League.
Zaznamenáno

Warning: Don't stare into laser with remaining eye!
Muphrid
Hero Member
*****
Příspěvků: 949



Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #26 kdy: 01.07.2008, 13:49:17 »

druhá část:

Citace
(6) Assuming that Manticore pursues an all-out offensive strategy resulting in the near-total destruction of Battle Fleet and the destruction of all known military shipbuilding centers, can Manticore indefinitely prevent the Solarian League from rearming?

This is one of the questions I've previously addressed here on the Bar. In my opinion, it would not be that difficult for Manticore to prevent the reemergence of large military shipbuilding centers in the territory of the Solarian League. I gave you the breakdown on the forces I thought would be necessary to manage something like this quite some time ago, and it really wouldn't be a huge commitment of forces on Manticore's part.

It would, of course, by the very nature of things, be far more difficult to prevent the development of clandestine shipyards -- like Bolthole --23 at this time might have very little or no industry, or even be totally unpopulated. Developing such capacity would be a far from minor chore, however. It would require a mammoth financial investment, and it would also require the movement of quite a bit of materiel and personnel. The sheer cost of the project would probably be a considerable deterrent for any individual member system of the League, and it would be extraordinarily difficult for something as corrupt and bureaucratic as the present League to manage something like this without having Manticoran sympathizers somewhere become aware of it and blow the whistle on the effort. I'm certainly not trying to argue that it would be impossible to accomplish this. I'm simply pointing out that it would not be easy to accomplish it, and that there would be many opportunities for Manticore to become aware of what was happening, even if they didn't know exactly where it was happening.

Bear in mind also, however, that it isn't Bolthole's productivity which makes Bolthole so dangerous to Manticore. The fact that it was possible to build up an entire modern navy without Manticore becoming aware of it was obviously of major importance, of course. But what truly made Bolthole dangerous were the efforts of Shannon Foraker and her little think tank. Bolthole could have built exactly the same number of pre-pod superdreadnoughts, and it wouldn't have materially affected the balance of power between Manticore and the Republic of Haven at all.

In the same sense, a Solarian Bolthole which served as the secret research center in which the Solarian League developed matching -- or superior -- technology would be extremely dangerous. However, Manticore has already been burned by that particular set of events already, and the Alliance has been building up its production capability ever since the beginning of this round of the Havenite Wars. Assuming the Solarian League or some other nasty person doesn't get a lot luckier than the Republic got in Operation Beatrice, Manticore's building capacity is unlikely to do anything but increase. I think that we could reasonably assume that the Star Empire's management would see a certain logic in locating well protected, locally manned shipbuilding centers outside the Manticore Binary System itself after what happened to Grendelsbane and what almost happened in the Battle of Manticore. The reason I make this point is that the Solarian League would not only have to build a Bolthole at which the new technologies could be researched and developed, but would also have to build a Bolthole -- or a series of Boltholes -- in which it could clandestinely build a fleet, as well, and that fleet would have to be big enough to take on whatever the Manties had built and/or were capable of quickly building. So if the Star Empire is monitoring the star systems where such fleets might be built (aside, of course, from whatever Bolthole-clone the Sollies might manage to create), it would really come down to what those built-from-scratch, secret building centers could produce compared to what the openly acknowledged Manticoran (and quite possibly Havenite and Andermani, as well) yards could produce. Given the fact that I'm pretty sure we could count on a Manticore which is attempting to impose what amounts to a long-term occupation of the Solarian League to remember the painful lesson of Bolthole and Operation Thunderbolt, I imagine that the difficulties in secretly building a navy capable of defeating the Star Empire in battle would be significantly greater than many people appear to be assuming.

 

(7) In the event of a war between the Star Empire of Manticore and the Solarian League, what happens to the Manticoran carrying trade and the wealth generated by its wormhole junction?

This is another question which admits of several possible outcomes. First, bear in mind that the Solarian League's shipping lines also rely upon the wormholes dominated by the Star Empire's astrographic position. Also bear in mind that the tactical superiority of the Manticoran Navy, and its ability to move quickly via the wormhole junctions in the event of hostilities, means that Manticore would be substantially better placed militarily to secure (and retain) control of the majority of the wormholes in existence than the Solarian League would be.

Another not unimportant point to bear in mind is that Manticore has gone to considerable lengths to build and maintain the friendliest possible relations with the other wormhole junctions. It hasn't always been possible for them to nourish good relations, generally because of other circumstances, but overall, Manticore is on excellent terms with the majority of the star systems which possess wormhole junctions of their own. Many of these systems are members of -- or, at least, dependencies of -- the Solarian League, which naturally means that the official policy of the League is going to become a factor in their relations with Manticore. Despite that, however, it's most unlikely that any of those star systems would be willing to cooperate in shutting down Manticoran traffic through them except in the wake of a formal, legal declaration of war from the League Assembly, rather than simply some sort of bureaucratic fiat handed down by Frontier Security or Frontier Fleet. And, as I already commented above, in the absence of such a formal, general declaration of war, it is entirely possible (even probable) that Manticoran trade with the majority of the Solarian League would continue unabated.

(As a historical example of how this could happen, look at the relationship between the Dutch and Spain during the lengthy rebellion against Spanish rule in Holland. Spain was one of the Dutch merchant fleet's main customers. In fact, many of the artillery pieces mounted by the vessels of the Spanish Armada had been cast in Dutch foundries. Business was business, and the governments in question winked at it because each of them needed something the other offered. This particular relationship existed despite the fact that Spain had declared the Spanish Netherlands to be in a formal state of rebellion and had dispatched an occupying army to fight a particularly brutal war on the Netherlands' soil. The possibility of a commercial relationship continuing untrammeled by the vicissitudes of a "state of war" which didn't even directly impinge upon the star systems in question would, I think, be considerably greater.)

Assuming that a formal state of war was declared, and that the Solarian League remained intact as a coherent political unit (or, at least, as close to a "coherent political unit" as it's ever been), then the consequences for the Manticoran merchant service -- and for the revenue stream based upon that service -- could become far graver. Even then, however, the fact that Manticore would be in a better position to control/dominate the network of wormhole junctions would mean that cutting off Manticoran trade might well prove to be a case of having cut off its nose to spite its face where the League was concerned. Should the League succeed in cutting off all Solarian trade with Manticore (which, frankly, would be extremely unlikely, in my opinion, given human nature), Manticore would be well positioned to inflict severe, if not outright crippling, damage on Solarian commerce simply by denying League shippers access to the majority of the wormhole network. Shipping times would increase (you should pardon the expression) astronomically at the very same time that a huge chunk of the hulls (the entire Manticoran merchant marine) -- not to mention the warehousing facilities and service organizations -- upon which League shippers have depended literally for generations evaporated. The financial dislocations within the League would be immense. Although probably not life-threatening to the League, on the face of things, at least, it would inflict severe damage on the League's industrial and economic stance, it would throw the entire League badly off-balance strategically, if only where the movement of military units were concerned, and the severe economic hardship it would impose upon the systems most affected by it would be a powerful be stabilizing influence on the League because of the way in which it would undermine those systems' loyalty to and self-interest in the concept of preserving the League.

The consequences for Manticore, would obviously be extraordinarily drastic, as well, of course. The question which would arise would be the extent to which Manticore's presumed increase in trade with the Republic of Haven and the Andermani Empire, plus whatever sectors/segments of the Solarian League wound up effectively isolated from the rest of the League by Manticore's domination of the wormhole networks, compensated for the loss in trade with the rest of the League. I'm not beginning to suggest here that those other sources would equal the loss in trade with the rest of the League, although I strongly suspect that it would increase drastically, since Manticore's continued existence would imply that it was managing to lop off additional chunks of the League and incorporate them into at least its economic sphere of interest, if not into its territory. I'm simply saying that there would be some compensation in the new trade realities, and that the hit to the Manticoran revenue stream might not be quite so severe and crippling as might be expected at first glance.

Frankly, it's also highly likely that Solarian shipping would suffer more from commerce raiding and privateering than Manticoran shipping would. There are several reasons for this, including the fact that the Manticorans have far more experience at commerce protection than the Solarians do and, in ships like the Rolands, they have much more effective commerce-raiders. But the biggest single factor would probably be Manticore's likely domination of the wormhole networks. Essentially, Manticoran merchant shipping would be far less exposed than anyone else's because it could go directly from one star system to another, hundreds of light-years away, in a single jump, whereas the Sollies would lose that capability. The greatest areas of vulnerability would still lie within the star systems of destination for the cargoes in question, given how difficult it is to locate a convoy or a single freighter in hyper-space, but that would be a point at which Manticore's greater experience and commerce protection would come into play most strongly.

I suppose the bottom line is that in the event of a complete rupture between the Solarian League and the Star Empire of Manticore, I think Manticore would probably be in a position to increase its domination of the carrying trade and economic services market by expanding into the areas the Solarian League was no longer capable of servicing, since there would no longer be any Solarian competition in those areas. Obviously, this presupposes that the Star Empire is able to survive militarily and to exert control over the wormhole networks as I have suggested above.

 

(Valím oči! Super! What happens if a revanchist Solarian League or Solarian League successor state decides to go after Manticore after achieving technological and numerical parity or superiority?

The definitive answer to this question is -- who knows? Huge amounts would depend on the exact status of the Star Empire at the time this revanchist threat emerged, presumably from some deeply hidden Solarian Bolthole. If one assumes that the Star Empire has continued to expand, to strengthen its internal markets, to develop a friendly commercial relationship with the Republic of Haven (which might also be peacefully expanding once again, if it had a chance to get its economic feet fully under it), to negotiate a reasonably conciliatory peace treaty with the Solarian League or, at least, with the majority of its successor states, and to work at improving its relationship(s) with the League or the majority of its successor states, it would have to be one hell of a revanchist force to make much headway. For reasons I've already listed above, I think it's extraordinarily unlikely that any Solarian Bolthole would be able to produce a credible threat (in terms of both technology and necessary numbers) to the Star Empire in any sort of short-term time frame. Assuming that that's true, then one also has to assume that the Star Empire would not be letting grass grow under it in terms of protecting its own territory and position. The fact that they've already been Boltholed and Thunderbolted once is going to keep both ONI and the Admiralty on its toes and wary where such a potential threat is concerned, as well. So given the fact that I don't see this particular threat emerging within anything less than a decade or two of the Solarian League's defeat, and that even then I find it very difficult to believe that a sufficiently large navy could be built up without Manticore's noticing, I don't really see this as a realistic threat.

Now, if the Solarian League managed to establish a Bolthole, or a series of Boltholes, while it was still an intact political unit and to sustain operations against Manticore while that Bolthole did a Shannon Foraker and came up with the new technology the SLN would require to stand up to Manticore, that would obviously be a completely different situation. How that would happen, unless Manticore were to suddenly become sufficiently terminally stupid to allow the League to spin out negotiations long enough, would be difficult for me to envision at this time, but that doesn't necessarily mean it would be impossible. However, that's rather a different question from the one about what would happen if a revenge-minded faction of the League decided to build a navy and come after the Manties.

In addition, I question whether or not any such revenge-minded faction would be a realistic possibility in the first place. First, the Solarian League isn't the sort of government that inspires an intense personal loyalty out of its subjects. If a citizen of the Solarian League has a powerful sense of patriotism, it's normally focused upon his home star system, not on the vast, mostly unseen, totally bureaucratic, and completely politically nonresponsive Rube Goldberg contraption called the "Solarian League." For the vast majority of Solarians, if asked to choose between the interests of their home system and of the League as a whole, and to decide whether his personal loyalty belonged to his home system or to the League as a whole, the decision would be the same as for the US Army officers who resigned their commissions to take service with the Confederacy following their home states' secession from the Union. It's always possible that if the Manticorans were sufficiently maladroit, or if some opposing faction (like, maybe, the Mesan Alignment?) were sufficiently adroit, at manipulating and spinning events, the Manties could end up doing something (or being accused of doing something) which would so infuriate Solarian public opinion that the Manties as an external threat actually brought about the creation of a true sense of League-wide patriotism. Given the current terminal state of the League's relationship with its citizenry, however, that is extremely unlikely. (Which doesn't mean that I couldn't figure out a way to do it if I needed to come up with a fresh credible bad guy to confront Manticore, of course.)
Zaznamenáno

Warning: Don't stare into laser with remaining eye!
Muphrid
Hero Member
*****
Příspěvků: 949



Zobrazit profil
« Odpověď #27 kdy: 01.07.2008, 13:50:32 »

a zbytek Úsměv:

Citace
(9) How much does the ONI know about the Solarian League's real capabilities?

The short answer is quite a lot more than the United States Navy knew about the Japanese Empire and the Imperial Japanese Navy in the 1930s . . . which, unfortunately, wasn't very much.

In point of fact, the USN was woefully ignorant in many regards where the Japanese Navy was concerned. For example, they were unaware of the fact that the Kongo-class battlecruisers' reconstruction had increased the ships speed to the 30-knot mark. They listed the Nagato-class as good for a maximum speed of only 22 knots, when in fact the ships were capable of 27. They didn't have a clue about the existence of the "Long Lance" torpedo, they underrated the effectiveness of both the Val dive bomber and the Kate torpedo bomber, didn't realize how long-ranged the Betty bomber was, and despite reports from the Chinese and Claire Chenault and the American Volunteer Group, they severely underestimated the capabilities of the Zero fighter. And, of course, they listed the Yamato-class ships' tonnage at 45,000 tons and the main battery at 16 inches until after the end of World War II.

In regards to that last point, one of my favorite historical examples of how to mislead your opponents while being scrupulously honest relates to the Yamato-class. Under the terms of the Washington Naval Disarmament Treaty of 1921, battleships were limited to a maximum tonnage of 35,000 tons and a maximum main armament caliber no greater than 16 inches. Later, in one of the follow-on agreements, the United States and Great Britain agreed to limit maximum main battery size to 14 inches (which was what the Brits had wanted all along) and battleships to 35,000 tons, but with the proviso that there would be a clause permitting armament size to be increased to 16 inches and tonnage to escalate to 45,000 tons if there was credible evidence that any foreign power was building something bigger than the treaty mandated limitations. (This is why the American North Carolina-class battleships were originally designed to carry 14-inch guns, not 16-inch guns. And the reason that they were armored against 14-inch fire, not 16-inch fire, despite the long-standing American policy that a capital ship should be armored against the fire of her own guns. FDR very carefully waited until he'd been reassured of election before certifying that Japan was building ships larger than the treaty limits and invoking the escalator clauses. After all, he couldn't afford to infuriate the isolationists too severely before the election.)

The Japanese, who had never been a party to that particular follow-on treaty, scrupulously observed the limitations on capital ships imposed by the Washington Treaty until they had formally (and legally) withdrawn from it, following notification of their intent to do so in 1936. Like every other navy, however, they had been free to continue paper studies, planning, and designing even when they weren't actually building any new ships, and they had been steadily working away at what became the Yamatos for a long time. There had been persistent rumors that they were doing so, and, after all, what was the point in withdrawing from the treaty in the first place if you intended to be bound by its limitations? So, when the Japanese began construction of their first new battleships since World War I, reports said that they were building 45,000-ton battleships armed with 16-inch guns, which had been generally accepted as the next upward step in battleship displacement and armament. The Japanese, however, replied with perfect honesty that they were not, in fact, building any 45,000-ton, 16-inch-gunned battleships. Why, the very notion was ridiculous! What they did not mention, was that instead, they were building 65,000-ton battleships with 18.1-inch guns.

ONI is somewhat better informed than that, but there are still major and dangerous holes in Manticore's available information. There is a huge amount of information available on the Solarian League Navy from open sources, much as is true of the United States Navy today. Jane's Fighting Ships of the Galaxy is still in production and lists with pretty close accuracy the numbers of ships in Battle Fleet reserve, what new classes are coming into service, what ships have been formally stricken from service, what ships have been sent to the breakers, what ships have been disposed of by transfer to friendly client states, etc.. It's not difficult at all for ONI to locate, evaluate, and analyze the relatively small number of military shipyards in the League, either, since no one's ever made any particular effort to hide them. The exact state of the League's hardware is much more problematical, however, and there is even less Manticoran penetration into such areas as military R&D. Given the fact that the League hasn't fought a real war in so long, no one -- including the League -- has any sort of accurate yardstick for judging the war-fighting capabilities of the Solarian officer corps, and ONI at this time has no feel at all for what -- if any -- war plans the SLN might have on file.

The biggest reason for this state of ignorance is that ONI's resources are not infinite, and, for obvious reasons, Manticore's attention has been focused on Haven for the last 50 or 60 T-years. The Solarian League wasn't perceived as any particular threat, and gathering information about it was therefore assigned a very low level of priority. In addition, one should also bear in mind that without the Mesan Alignment's interference, the Manticoran assessment of the Solarian League as "no particular threat" would be 100% accurate . . . and, of course, no one in Manticore knows of the Mesan Alignment's existence.

With the emergence of the threat of a possible direct confrontation with the Solarian League in Talbott, ONI's priorities are inevitably shifting, and, frankly, neither the League as a whole nor the SLN in particular is anywhere near as security conscious as the Republic of Haven. Indeed, they leak like sieves, so obtaining a lot of the information Manticore currently lacks would not be particularly difficult . . . if Admiral Givens had the time in which to set up an entirely new espionage network in the League. She doesn't have that sort of time, however, so at the moment, her analysts are concentrating frantically on everything available from open sources while searching for any additional bits and pieces of information they can lay their hands on. But there are huge question marks in the minds of any Manticoran planners confronting the possibility of a direct conflict with the Solarian League, and those question marks are confounded by perceptions, beliefs, and assumptions about the League which have been in existence for so long that virtually no one questions them. I've touched on many of them in previous posts, so I'm not going to drag them all out here (especially given how long this post has already gotten), but most of them would tend to make the League look bigger, tougher, more monolithic, and generally much scarier than might actually prove the case. The problem for the Manties and there analyze at this point, however, is that there's no way for them to know that those perceptions and assumptions are, in fact, in error, and it would take years for them to build up the espionage infrastructure and general knowledge base to realistically challenge beliefs which have been held literally for centuries.


"Oh, bother!" Pooh said as Piglet came back from the dead.
Zaznamenáno

Warning: Don't stare into laser with remaining eye!
Stran: 1 [2] Tisk 
« předchozí další »
Skočit na:  

Poháněno MySQL Poháněno PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2006-2008, Simple Machines Validní XHTML 1.0! Validní CSS!